Increased intestinal permeability has been associated with Crohn’s disease (CD), but it is not clear whether it is a cause or result of the disease. We performed a prospective study to determine whether increased intestinal permeability is associated with future development of CD.

We assessed the intestinal permeability, measured by the urinary fractional excretion of lactulose-to-mannitol ratio (LMR) at recruitment in 1420 asymptomatic first-degree relatives (6–35 years old) of patients with CD (collected from 2008 through 2015). Participants were then followed up for a diagnosis of CD from 2008 to 2017, with a median follow-up time of 7.8 years. We analyzed data from 50 participants who developed CD after a median of 2.7 years during the study period, along with 1370 individuals who remained asymptomatic until October 2017. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate time-related risk of CD based on the baseline LMR.

An abnormal LMR (>0.03) was associated with a diagnosis of CD during the follow-up period (hazard ratio, 3.03; 95% CI, 1.64–5.63; P = 3.97 × 10^–4). This association remained significant even when the test was performed more than 3 years before the diagnosis of CD (hazard ratio, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.051–2.50; P = .029).

Increased intestinal permeability is associated with later development of CD; these findings support a model in which altered intestinal barrier function contributes to pathogenesis. Abnormal gut barrier function might serve as a biomarker for risk of CD onset.